China's War by Other Means? Bridge Road Initiative (BRI)?

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China’s War by Other Means? Belt Road Initiative (BRI)?

Summary: Posting addresses some findings from 14Apr19; the Daily Time of Pakistan posted the article “125 countries and 29 organisations sign China initiated BRI”. The article notes are followed by some questions and possible conceptual relevance to Sun Tzu’s Art of War.

Article notes:
  • 125 countries and 29 international organizations signed onto China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI) since its inception roughly six years ago.[i] The article claimed BRI promotes infrastructure development to improve the welfare and economy of the host nation.
  • The article claimed western concerns of BRI participants falling into a “debt trap” is misleading speculation by questionable sources to disrupt China’s increasing global position. The article only cites two sources in the article, “China’s official Belt and Road web portal” and “Isaac Mwaipopo, executive director of the Center for Trade Policy and Dialogue in Zambia”.[ii]
  • Italy is the first G7 member country to sign onto BRI.[iii]
 Questions
  • Despite the article alleging anti-BRI comments are misinformed, misleading and western-influenced, is the author of the article misinformed, misleading and Chinese-influenced?[iv]
  • Is China waging economic warfare to attack the U.S. and usurp its global influence and promotion of democratic freedoms?
  • Is BRI a mechanism used as part of a Chinese conceptual piece to wage war with the U.S and he west via other means under the rubric of “Unrestricted Warfare” and its associated concepts as noted page 206? [v] [vi]
    • Omnidirectionality [vii]
    • Synchrony
    • Limited objectives
    • Unlimited measures
    • Asymmetry
    • Minimal consumption
    • Multidimensional coordination
    • Adjustment and control of the entire process

Potential Correlations to Sun Tzu’s “Art of War”
I. LAYING PLANS
1. Sun Tzu said: The art of war is of vital importance to the State.
Economic warfare is a means of war. Is China attempting to buyout US allies to further other desired political and military force projection objectives at the expense of host nations through questionable business practices.
III. ATTACK BY STRATAGEM
2. Hence to fight and conquer in all your battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting.
Is China conducting a war of positioning and constriction? As China gains ground and surrounds U.S. political economic relationships like an anaconda, will it then be positioned to force the U.S. to yield to its demands?
3. Thus the highest form of generalship is to balk the enemy's plans; the next best is to prevent the junction of the enemy's forces; the next in order is to attack the enemy's army in the field; and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities.
Is China projecting its business infrastructure to serve as the basis for military infrastructure leading to the facilitation of force power projection?
Is China using the economic means as a divide and conquer approach to split US-ally relationships? How do the new Chinese allies benefit from this? Who will those allies benefit more from… the US or China?
IV. TACTICAL DISPOSITIONS
1. Sun Tzu said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.
2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself.
3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy.
These three paragraphs appear to regard identifying and exploiting opportunities created by the opposition due to inaction; the inability to perceive subtle movements; cognitive dissonance due to competing interests/lack of focus; positioning oneself as a sniper awaiting the time for an ambush. The target provides the opportunity, the sniper only must shoot. For the sniper, time and patience was used to establish a position and wait for the right opportunity and time; for the target shot… a fast-acting surprise.
VI. WEAK POINTS AND STRONG
32. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions.
Is China waging war against the U.S. in a psychological asymmetric means whereby the U.S. only recognizes warfare in the physical combat perspective?[viii]
Do Chinese true intentions appear to be difficult to determine, and fear the risk of running into a Thucydides Trap?[ix]



[i] Daily Times Pakistan. 14Apr19. 125 countries and 29 organisations sign China initiated BRI. https://dailytimes.com.pk/376685/125-countries-and-29-organisations-sign-china-initiated-bri/  ; accessed 14Apr19
[ii] Daily Times Pakistan. 14Apr19. 125 countries and 29 organisations sign China initiated BRI. https://dailytimes.com.pk/376685/125-countries-and-29-organisations-sign-china-initiated-bri/ ; accessed 14Apr19
[iii] Daily Times Pakistan. 14Apr19. 125 countries and 29 organisations sign China initiated BRI. https://dailytimes.com.pk/376685/125-countries-and-29-organisations-sign-china-initiated-bri/ ; accessed 14Apr19
[iv] Pillsbury, Michael. The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. https://amzn.to/2PcHR1k ; accessed 14Apr19 via Kindle
[v] Wikipedia.Updated March 2019.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unrestricted_Warfare ; accessed 14Apr19
[vii] Liang, Qiao and Wang Xiangsui. 1999. Unrestricted Warfare. https://archive.org/stream/Unrestricted_Warfare_Qiao_Liang_and_Wang_Xiangsui/Unrestricted_Warfare_Qiao_Liang_and_Wang_Xiangsui_djvu.txt
[viii] Mattis, Peter. 30Jan18. China’s ‘Three Warfares’ in Perspective. https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/chinas-three-warfares-perspective/; accessed 14Apr19
[ix] TED. 2018. Is War Between China and the US Inevitable? https://www.ted.com/talks/graham_allison_is_war_between_china_and_the_us_inevitable?language=en; accessed 14Apr19

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